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#1 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 09-09-20 13:28

buen rebote del S&P500 pero el dolar amortiguo el impacto, el ipsa...uff el ipsa a nadie. Aun es muy arriesgado migrar al A, me mantengo 60%E para resguardo y 40% C para aprovechar en algo las buenas noticias

#2 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 02-09-20 08:43

Salio el Ipom y fue bastante optimista, probablemente afecte al tipo de cambio e impacte en el IPSA, aun me mantengo 60% E y 40% C pero me tienta cambiar el % del E al A, hay que esperar señales..


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#3 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 24-08-20 11:25

Steven escribió:

Lo que dijo un forero una vez fue algo así como " si me cambio hoy, pasado mañana hábil me afectan los mercados en fondo de destino" (aunque la duda surge de tiempo en tiempo en el foro, pero al menos esa "fórmula mnemotécnica" me ha servido)

igual debería afectar en parte el fondo de salida, si ingrese del 19 la solicitud hoy me muestra el valor de cierre al 20, si aparece el 21 a valor de cierre del fondo de destino es que la cuota se vendió entre las condiciones de apertura y cierre del fondo de origen en ese dia habil.

slds

#4 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 24-08-20 08:26

Me queda la duda si los que aparecemos el viernes es con cierre de marcado del día anterior o alcanzamos a ver los resultados de ese día

#5 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 19-08-20 15:40

Feo cierre para el A, Dolar, Ipsa y S&P 500 yo tome la decisión y rebalancie de 75% A y 25% C a 65% E y 35% C

#6 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » USDCLP » 19-08-20 08:53

Al parecer la subida a niveles de 800 no tenia la suficiente fuerza espero que de espacio de salida con perdida acotada a quienes estuvieron in a eso niveles


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#7 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 19-08-20 08:50

Steven escribió:

Partió más o menos mal hoy. Como que parece que le apuntaron con lo de cambiarse, pero con "destino equivocado"
Veremos qué pasa, porque en el pseudo está por llegar a zona de anterior objetivo (a lo mejor no pasa nada). 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zzyiyuUW/

Me cambiaría ahora pero voy a esperar al final del día mejor

idem, cayo feo el dolar y Ipsa+ S&P500 con suerte compensan..

#8 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 18-08-20 15:29

Feo el día de hoy pero pago por ver un par de días mas en el A , S&P 500 buscando nuevos máximos y el dolar no da una tendencia clara por lo que apuesto a que le queda aun por recorrer antes de decaer


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#9 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 13-08-20 15:49

Ultra escribió:

Si el UCDCLP se da vuelta (y eso parece), hasta aca llegamos.


mekaniko escribió:

En el grafico del fondo A. Empezando onda 5?

Uf que aguante otro poco para los que empezamos hace poco en el A, del viernes estoy en A 75% y C25% espero que aun quede margen antes que corrija a la baja así en el neto entre lo que baje al refugiarme en un fondo de menor riesgo sea mayor a la rentabilidad que hubiese obtenido sin haberme cambiado al A, esperemos que le dolar mañana cierre en +800


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#10 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 06-08-20 06:35

Steven escribió:

Hola estimados. Me parece curioso por lo menos lo que está pasando por el momento, ya que con el retiro del 10% se esperaba efecto negativo en los multifondos, sin embargo, por el momento no se evidencia (aunque es de 10 días hábiles el primer periodo de espera).  Sea lo que sea, ojalá que se le pueda sacar partido a este "veranito de San Juan "

sl2

Saludos

De esos 10 días deja al menos 2 días de gestión, así que probablemente la venta se divida en 8 lotes asi que cambiarse desde ayer , al sumarle los días hábiles del cambio de fondo, yo creo que ya habrá pasado el periodo de venta mas fuerte.

#11 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 05-08-20 16:57

Yo paso del 100% E a  75% A y 25% C, esperemos que nos de frutos.


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#12 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 28-07-20 11:00

benjamax escribió:
Glein escribió:
mekaniko escribió:

Seria bueno hacer un grafico de como han variado los porcentajes de renta fija nacional y extranjera y renta variable nacional y extranjera este año. Comparado con mayo la inversion extranjera del fondo E aumento de 10 a 16% y este mes con lo del retiro probablemente mas. Esto serviria para un menor impacto en la bolsa local y renta fija, aumentando el posible golpe al fondo A y B

Estimado, dado que la baja del dolar sera transitoria y como le darán preferencia a la venta de activos en el extranjero, los que tenian un mejor rendimiento, al recuperarse el dolar sumado a la adquisicion de nuevos activos de RFext , de mejor rendimiento, no significaria un potencial aumento a estos fondos?, post caida claramente.

en lo personal veo una oportunidad de cambio a estos fondos post caida

Después de todos los supuestos que hicimos tiempo atrás... que sp500 ya tenia tope, que que tasas están ya muy bajas, que dolar aqui y alla. Muy pocos se cumplieron. Los supuestos son solo eso, la realidad , el dia a dia es otra cosa. Los supuestos no consideran todos los cambios que se van produciendo con el tiempo y quedan solo en eso

Claro, mas que supuestos por si solos la idea es plantearse escenarios y como reaccionar en caso que se concreten, al final como dices en el dia a dia lo que vale es la capacidad de reacción y plantearse los escenarios es un aporte a ello. Ahora claramente caemos en los riesgos de que los escenarios mas "probables" sean los que nunca se hagan realidad


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#13 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 28-07-20 09:55

mekaniko escribió:
Steven escribió:

Cartera de inversión fondo A junio 2020, Habitat
https://www.afphabitat.cl/fondos/carter … 0-fondo-a/

Seria bueno hacer un grafico de como han variado los porcentajes de renta fija nacional y extranjera y renta variable nacional y extranjera este año. Comparado con mayo la inversion extranjera del fondo E aumento de 10 a 16% y este mes con lo del retiro probablemente mas. Esto serviria para un menor impacto en la bolsa local y renta fija, aumentando el posible golpe al fondo A y B

Estimado, dado que la baja del dolar sera transitoria y como le darán preferencia a la venta de activos en el extranjero, los que tenian un mejor rendimiento, al recuperarse el dolar sumado a la adquisicion de nuevos activos de RFext , de mejor rendimiento, no significaria un potencial aumento a estos fondos?, post caida claramente.

en lo personal veo una oportunidad de cambio a estos fondos post caida

#14 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Análisis técnico fondos de pensiones » 24-07-20 07:24

Probablemente hoy "debiese" el ministro de Hacienda dara  conocer la formula de liquidación de los activos. Eso ya debe estar acordado falta comunicarlo, en base a esa informacion veremos donde se producirá el menor impacto.. eso es lo que espero no creo que se manden la m... de no darlo a conocer hasta el dia que se habilite el retiro, seria lo ultimo


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#15 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Un recreo » 13-05-20 08:45

MARKOLICH escribió:

El  mejor  sistema  de  salud  del mundo  està  haciendo  agua  gracias  al  mejor  Ministro  de la  galaxia.  quisieron  ser Corea del Sur, sin  test masivos, sin  tecnologìa, sin tobilleras  electrònicas  para  vigilar  cuarentenas, sin disciplina.

debo decir que ahora si me entro el miedo, ya hasta se me olvido lo que perdi en LTM


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#16 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 13-05-20 06:54

FEUDALERO escribió:

sad but true... esta ya va en caída libre intenta levantarse con algunos optimistas pero retoma la inercia, ya me fui trasquilado pero así es este mundo, yo creo que cuando salgan los EEFF se pondrá fea fea la cosa y no veo que de aquí a una o dos semanas salga la noticia de un salvataje..


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#17 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 12-05-20 11:27

USA-CAL escribió:

Glein.....Fueron acusados de Dolo...les quitaron la propiedad de los bancos.....fueron a la carcel.....siguieron un largo juicio....Javier Vial Castillo (Presidente del banco de Chile) murió en 2004 durante el proceso....Y la corte los declaron INOCENTES....

https://www.emol.com/noticias/economia/ … o-bhc.html

Se les acuso de no pagar sus pasivos....pero al ser los bancos nacionalizados...no pudieron pagar (ellos se defendieron diciendo que fue fuerza mayor, ya que les quitaron administracion de sus bienes)...muy parecido a la incapacidad que tienen hoy las Aerolineas de no poder pagar sus compromisos (sueldos, pasivos, costos de operacion...) ya que la pandemia y cuarentena forzo la PARALIZACION de las aerolineas.


En resumen: Esto sera un FESTIN para los abogados (ellos si ganarn $$$$$)....posiblemente los accionistas de Aerolineas pierdan sus empresas....pero la continuidad de giro de LATAM....creo no estara en question.

USA-CAL










https://www.emol.com/noticias/economia/ … o-bhc.html

Buen punto ,en todo caso por lo ultimo que se hablo las aerolineas se meterán en el plan de empresa "grandes" no se hará un traje a la medida de LAN sino que se enmarcara en un paquete para empresas grandes, diferenciando a aquellas que se consideran "estrategicas", que supongo contaran con una mayor cobertura, por lo que no se aleja mucho de un préstamo con aval del estado (puede ser un crédito sindicado con aval del estado, me tinca esa opción porque es mas rápida )... ahora el punto es que si con ese préstamo es suficiente , si no lo es claramente podría llegar a necesitar ese traje a la medida y ahi efectivamente caer en una situación como la que mencionas..


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#18 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 12-05-20 07:02

USA-CAL escribió:

No confundir.......salvar la "unidad económica LATAM"...con Salvar a los accionistas de LATAM.

En 1982 la unidad económica Banco de Chile fue salvada ...y los accionistas (controladores) y (máximos ejecutivos) ejecutivos se fueron a la carcel....
El gobierno separo el banco Bueno (y le inyecto nuevo capital) ....del banco Malo (dio origen a deuda subordinada que se fue al Central)....y vendio las nuevas acciones en lo que se llamo CAPITALISMO POPULAR

Creo que aqui pasara idem.....Es impresentable que en gobierno de SP, el Gobierno rescate a los ex socios de SP....permitiendoles preservar algo o el todo de su capital ante escenario de quiebra (por fuerza mayor).....

Los accionistas que tengan acciones al momento del rescate...tendrán el mismo trato que los Cueto.....perderán su capital.

Cuidado aquí....los In están jugando con fuego (sobre todo luego de avianca el domingo pasado)....


USA-CAL

Es bien distinto el caso del CHILE En el 82 a lo que pasaría con LATAM, pariendo porque aca no hay Dolo y nadie se iria preso , no obstante comparto que no se vería bien SI la iniciativa nace de SP y no de la cámara,  SP no salvara a LATAM sin el apoyo del congreso, si hay un salvavidas tiene que pasar si o si por el congreso y eso es lo que se espera..


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#19 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 12-05-20 06:40

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p … 84742.html

No todo es malas noticias, parece que la quiebra de avianca a asustado a las autoridades...

Slds


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#20 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Vaticinios y recomendaciones sin base diarios » 08-05-20 09:45

danvasqar escribió:
danvasqar escribió:

Aparentemente se Nos viene un buen día...

IPSA +2%

jajaj ni cerca... menos mal es vaticinio sin base.

jaja entre tanta masacre alegran el dia ironias de ese tipo


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#21 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 07-05-20 09:01

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p … 01054.html

Arma de doble filo, si pasa la prueba de la blancura puede ser el empujon que se necesite, de parte del congreso, para apoyar una inyección a LATAM, porque el gobierno aun queriendo no tomara solo la decisión si al final se llevaran todo el cuestionamiento, si no pasa la prueba de la blancura se pone difícil la cosa..


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#22 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » Vaticinios y recomendaciones sin base diarios » 04-05-20 10:35

TRESMARES escribió:
masterdba escribió:
ric4rdo escribió:

Rudo lo que se viene para el sector  Warren Buffet `liquido todas sus posiciones en lineas aéreas` Southwest, Delta, American, Delta. ojo


Ha perdido bastante Capital de Trabajo en esta Pandemia.....necesita money para comprar empresas que percibe en quiebra para comprarlas baratas...


Ese no da puntada sin hilo.......

Antes que comenzará esta pandemia tenía 180.000 millones  en caja .sale porque este sector va hacer de los últimos en recuperarse y aún le queda mucho por caer.

De los ultimos en recuperar su nivel pre covid, no obstante es uno de los que presentara mayor crecimiento en un corto periodo una vez que anuncien la famosa vacuna..
en lo personal mi IN de corto en LATAM se convirtió en Largo Y_Y


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#23 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 04-05-20 09:33

hexx escribió:

Una duda a los expertos.....

como afectaría a la acción que el estado ayude a LTM.... pero se quede con una parte de la empresa??

https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/eco … algo.shtml

??

No soy experto pero creo que la mejor opción seria bonos convertibles en acciones, la peor una serie nueva de acciones.

Slds

#24 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 30-04-20 10:14

jajajaj no acompaña el clima, a ver si amanecen mejor los mercados el lunes y hoy ojala que cierre bajo -2%. Que confirmen luego el préstamo con el aval del estado , le han tirado artas flores de cancilleria solo falta que suelten las lukas.

#25 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 17-04-20 08:52

Me gustaría ver el pre balace a marzo que vio el Banco estado.. Estoy seguro que cuando salgan las cifras , aunque sean mejores a la "estimada", al acción se resentirá.


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#26 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 08-04-20 06:49

masterdba escribió:
Glein escribió:

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p … 40808.html
Gobierno entraría como accionista ante un eventual rescate.. a los expertos les pregunto , una emisión de una nueva serie de acciones que tanto afectaría a la serie actual?

Slds



Los Partidos mas Ricos de Chile, el PS y el PC, ya comenzarían a sobarse las manos y discutir a quienes podrían en los Directorios de las Diversas Empresas....  les importa la gente ?? obvio que, NO...sólo el Poder.


Esperemos que la opción de rescate sea otra mas Financiera y menos Política.....

Si fuera solamente Chilena te creo pasara eso, pero estan los Brasileños y esta Delta, muy poco probable que suceda eso, al menos con la intención que emitiste tu comentario. Claramente al estar en el directorio con representación meterán a alguien pero pensemos positivo y que pueda ser del calibre de gente que entra a Metro, que a mi parecer es una empresa world class.


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#27 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 07-04-20 15:30

https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-p … 40808.html
Gobierno entraría como accionista ante un eventual rescate.. a los expertos les pregunto , una emisión de una nueva serie de acciones que tanto afectaría a la serie actual?

Slds


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#28 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 23-03-20 06:48

RUTA44 escribió:
verberr escribió:

Eso en el cp no dará viabilidad! De agravarse la situación acá será un panorama muy malo!

Totalmente de acuerdo,  la noticia acá sería el salvataje estatal.   Latam es la L Aérea mas grande de América Latina...  hay quienes estiman como inminente la ayuda estatal...

De que país es latam? es chilena?  es brasileña? Ahora delta tiene un % importante, así de que pais es?. Es una multinacional, así que no sera tan fácil para el estado, sea chileno brasileño u otro, dar un salvataje, y si es así tendrá mucho cuidado de que no aparezca como un salvataje a los accionistas..


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#29 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 19-03-20 12:43

eluspa_2010 escribió:
Don-Ben escribió:

Latam +32 % ¡Se acabó la crisis!

Latam cerró en +16%, ¿continua la crisis?

honestamente pensé que cerraría en menos app unos 10%, probablemente abra en negativo parafraseando a rolex "esto recién comienza"


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#30 Re: Foro Chilebolsa » LAN » 19-03-20 06:35

Rolex escribió:
Rey Negro escribió:

Hola!!! consulta.. donde tradean acciones de LTM, necesito un broker, estoy preparandome para el siguiente despegue! algun dato porfa!!!

En los diarios y en todo el mundo estan hablando sobre salvatajes a las lineas aereas, en chile en especifico recien comienza algo que no sabemos como va a terminar aun y tu preparandote para el siguiente despegue?

Yo creo que hay que irse con calma

+25% , a ver como se desinfla en el transcurso del dia el rebote. igual hay que tener a la mano por lo menos la clave de internet e ir liquidando los depositos para estar liquido cuando sea la oportunidad..pero a mantener la calma que como dice rolex estamos re100 empezando..

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